The Atlanta Dream and Golden State Valkyries are each one win away from the WNBA Finals, and both get their first shot at closing it out on the road Friday night.

Atlanta took a 2-0 lead on the New York Liberty with a 101-98 overtime win in Game 2. Angel Reese scored 23 points and hit the clinching free throws with 4.3 seconds left, and the Dream did it without their leading scorer, Allisha Gray, who missed the game with a left hand injury. That came after a 92-82 win in Game 1. Now the series moves to Barclays Center, where the Liberty need a win to keep their season alive. A win for Atlanta would send them to their first WNBA Finals since 2013.

New York has plenty of reasons to believe they can extend this. Breanna Stewart put up 35 points, 11 rebounds and six assists in Game 2, and the Liberty were a possession away from tying the series. They’re also still upset over a late-game mix-up about whether they had a reset timeout left in overtime.

Out West, the Valkyries have the defending champion Las Vegas Aces on the ropes. Golden State won Game 1 71-60 behind their work on the glass, then held off a Las Vegas comeback 83-81 in Game 2, with Veronica Burton hitting the dagger 3-pointer late. The Aces head home for Game 3 at Michelob Ultra Arena needing a win, and A’ja Wilson and company have been in this spot before during their run of eight straight semifinal appearances.

Liberty-Dream tips at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, followed by Aces-Valkyries at 9:30 p.m. ET. We break down our best bets for both Game 3 matchups below. New users can bet $5 on the WNBA and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Liberty vs. Dream odds

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Liberty vs. Dream prediction

New York hasn’t looked like a team on the verge of elimination. Game 2 was a coin flip that came down to the final possession of overtime, and the Liberty erased a six-point deficit in the last two minutes of regulation to get there. This group also just became the first No. 8 seed to knock out a No. 1 seed, so they’re comfortable playing with their backs against the wall.

The supporting cast is what gives me confidence. Jonquel Jones had 21 points in Game 2, and Marine Fauthoux added 20, including the game-tying 3-pointer late in regulation. With that kind of help, New York is tough to beat. The Liberty also shot the ball extremely well from deep against Minnesota, hitting more than 40% of their threes, and getting back home should help them find that stroke again.

Barclays Center hasn’t been a comfortable place for the Liberty against Atlanta lately. The Dream won both of their September meetings in Brooklyn by double digits, so I’m not expecting the home crowd alone to swing this.

That said, Atlanta’s health is a real concern. Gray is their top scorer, and they needed a big night from Jordin Canada (23 points, eight assists) and 11 points from rookie Izzy Borlase off the bench to survive without her. If Gray is limited or out again, that’s a lot to ask on the road for a second straight game.

New York needs one win to make this a series, and I think they get it Friday.

Prediction: Liberty 86, Dream 81

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Liberty vs. Dream best bet

Laying -160 isn’t my favorite way to bet a playoff game, but this is the right side. I’d rather pay the price on the Liberty winning straight up than sweat a number in a series where both games have been tight down the stretch.

Breanna Stewart is the main reason. She had 25 points in the first half alone in Game 2, and she looked much more aggressive than she did in the opener, when she was held to 19. Atlanta threw a lot at her and still couldn’t slow her down. With their season on the line, I expect her to have the ball even more.

The risk is ball security. Atlanta’s guards were swiping the ball all over the floor against Washington, and the Liberty’s final possession of Game 2 ended with an errant pass. If New York gives the Dream easy transition chances, this could get away.

Still, I’m backing the more desperate home team with the best player on the floor. The Liberty were one stop away from going back to New York tied, and I like them to make that up Friday.

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Liberty vs. Dream best player prop

Canada has been one of the biggest problems for New York in this series, and I don’t think this number has caught up yet.

She’s cleared 13.5 points in each of her last three games, and her last three against New York. She’s gone over 20 in both semifinal games. That’s a big jump for a player who sat under this line for much of the regular season, but the role is different now. Canada is playing more minutes and taking more shots, and Atlanta is running much of its offense through her.

The Gray situation adds to the appeal. If Gray is out or limited again, Atlanta needs someone to replace that scoring, and Canada is the most natural fit. Even with Gray back, the Liberty haven’t shown they can keep her out of the paint or off the free-throw line.

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Aces vs. Valkyries odds

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Aces vs. Valkyries prediction

Golden State has been the better team through two games. No argument there. But they’ve done it at Chase Center, and the home team has now won five straight in this series. The Aces also swept all three regular-season meetings, so going on the road isn’t a small thing for the Valkyries.

The bigger thing for me is that Las Vegas hasn’t looked like themselves yet. Sixty points in Game 1 was their lowest output of the season, and Wilson had to work for everything, needing 21 shots to get to 24. This is the same team that put up 89 points per game on the Valkyries during the regular season. The offense isn’t gone. It’s just been buried under a pile of missed shots and long rebounds that went the other way.

And those rebounds are the real story of this series. Golden State beat them 52-25 on the glass in the opener, which is almost hard to believe. If that happens again, I’m wrong, and the Valkyries are headed to the Finals in their second year.

I don’t see it. Becky Hammon has had two games to fix the box-outs, Jewell Loyd and Stephanie Talbot are healthier, and this core of Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young has been here before. They dragged Las Vegas through a winner-take-all Game 3 against Indiana a couple of weeks ago.

Backs against the wall, home crowd, defending champs. I’ll take the Aces to buy themselves at least one more game.

Prediction: Aces 82, Valkyries 76

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Aces vs. Valkyries best bet

When the Aces needed a win to stay alive against Indiana last week, Wilson dropped 36 points with 10 rebounds. That’s the version of her I’m betting on Friday.

She hasn’t cleared this number yet in the semifinals, and Kiah Stokes deserves a lot of credit for that. Stokes has been physical with her, and the Valkyries have done a nice job sending help without leaving shooters open. But Wilson has been getting her looks. They just haven’t been falling, and a four-time MVP isn’t going to keep missing shots she normally makes, especially at home.

I’ll admit this line isn’t a gimme. She went over it in fewer than half of her last 30 games, so I’m not pretending this is automatic. What I keep coming back to is how often she’s turned these spots into 30-point nights. Her best games this season have come in big moments, and there’s no bigger one than a game that could end the Aces’ title defense.

Getting even money on that feels right. Las Vegas will put the ball in her hands from the opening tip, and I expect her to take this one personally.

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Aces vs. Valkyries best player prop

Williams has been the best player in this series, but most of that damage has come from scoring. She opened the semifinals with 25 points, and the Valkyries will keep asking her to look for her own shot rather than set everyone else up.

That’s been her role for most of the season. Burton handles a lot of the playmaking for Golden State, and Williams has spent more of her time spotting up and attacking off the catch, where she’s one of the league’s best 3-point shooters. She’s stayed at three assists or fewer in most of her games, which is why this number looks a little high to me.

I’ll give the over some credit, because she’s been more active as a passer lately. She dished out five in Game 1 and has a couple of bigger nights mixed in over the last few weeks. Still, she followed that up with three in Game 2, and I expect the Aces to throw more attention at her on the road after watching her torch them in the opener.

If Las Vegas makes her a priority defensively, the ball should move through Burton and the rest of the rotation more often. That leaves Williams in more of a finishing role, and I’m happy to lay the juice on her staying under this line.

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