Two home underdogs have more on the line than most in Week 5 of the NFL season.
The Green Bay Packers take on the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field, where fans booed a 35-14 loss to Atlanta in Week 3. The Bears are favored, and second-year coach Ben Johnson is 2-1 against the Packers, including playoffs. Johnson has not hidden his disdain for the Packers either.
This is a chance for Matt LaFleur to swap the narrative on Green Bay’s season, which has been a struggle through four weeks. Will they even be a factor in the NFC North race?
The Los Angeles Chargers are not a factor in the AFC West under Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers are 0-4 ahead of a home game against rival Denver. Justin Herbert ranks 28th in the NFL with a 70.6 passer rating with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. What would the impact of a 0-5 start be in what could be the best division in the AFC?
We have three outright upset picks this week – one that features the Monday Night Football showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills. A look at our track record this season:
S/U: 41-23 (10-6 in Week 4)
ATS: 24-39-1 (6-10 in Week 4)
All spreads and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
MORE: NFL Week 5 power rankings
NFL picks, predictions for Week 5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Jalon Daniels likely will get a second start for the Buccaneers. He threw two interceptions in his first start – but he added 55 rushing yards. It’s going to be tough to keep up with the Cowboys‘ offense, which ranks second in the NFL at 30.5 points per game. CeeDee Lamb enjoys a fourth straight 100-yard game, and Dallas covers late.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 19
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
Saquon Barkley (hamstring) left Week 4 and the Eagles head to London at a crossroads. Jalen Hurts averages 123 passing yards with a 52.8% completion percentage the last two weeks. The Jaguars are 7-7 S/U all time in London games. Jacksonville has a plus-six turnover ratio, and Trevor Lawrence will take advantage of those mistakes.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Eagles 21
- Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
This line could bump up before Sunday. The Bears average 196.3 rushing yards per game, and the Packers have allowed 191.5 ypg. in the last two weeks. Edgerrin Cooper’s injury is another blow to the defense, and the Packers can’t run the ball with consistency. Green Bay will put up more of a fight at home – but Chicago continues to turn the narrative on this NFC North rivalry.
Pick: Bears 24, Packers 19
- Houston Texans (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Few could have predicted this would be a battle of 0-4 teams heading into Week 5. The Titans are a little better at running the ball (89.0 ypg.) than the Texans (79.0), which is going to task quarterbacks Cam Ward and C.J. Stroud. The Texans have won five in a row at Tennessee – and those victories are by an average of. 5.8 points per game.
Pick: Texans 26, Titans 14
- Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Dolphins haven’t scored more than 13 points in a game this season. The Bengals have struggled with turnovers and an inability to generate a rushing offense the last two seasons. Cincinnati still has Joe Burrow, and he’ll be counted on for more if Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) are out. Cincinnati will cover, but it won’t be comfortable.
Pick: Bengals 23, Dolphins 13
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Raiders beat the Patriots 20-13 last season, but much has changed since then. Las Vegas is 2-0 S/U on the road this season. Kirk Cousins had 52 pass attempts in the loss to Kansas City in Week 4. The Raiders will need more balance at New England, where Drake Maye is coming off a three-TD game at Buffalo. The Raiders are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season. That streak continues.
Pick: Patriots 23, Raiders 20
MORE: Pats hope another win in Buffalo will spark winning streak
- Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Vikings are 4-0 and road favorites against a resurgent New Orleans offense coming off a short week. Will Justin Jefferson, a St. Rose, La., native, return from an ankle injury? The Saints are 1-4 ATS as a home underdog under second-year coach Kellen Moore, which is a concern heading into this game. We’re still taking the home team – especially if Minnesota has to settle for field goals.
Pick: Saints 23, Vikings 19
- Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is only the second time New York has been favored under second-year coach Aaron Glenn. The Browns have been the better team up to this point around improved play from Deshaun Watson. Rookie Denzel Boston averages 21.8 yards per catch. This is a deal-with-success-spot for Cleveland and first-year coach Todd Monken, and Quinshon Judkins could have a huge game on the road.
Pick: Browns 21, Jets 19
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Steelers are hard to figure out. Or are they? Pittsburgh is at home – where they are 2-0 this season and Aaron Rodgers has a 91.8 passer rating. The Steelers have allowed 264.5 passing yards the last two weeks – and the Colts have a chance to win three in a row. The Colts had six turnovers in a 27-20 loss at Acrisure Stadium last season. It will be a similar score here.
Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 24
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Who are the quarterbacks in this matchup? Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota could be out, which means rookie Athan Kaliakmanis could get the start. Jameis Winston took four sacks and threw two interceptions in a wild Week 4 victory against Arizona. He also established a connection with Malik Nabers – and that might be all it takes here.
Pick: Giants 20, Commanders 17
MORE: How the Giants can challenge in the NFC East
- Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Chargers are a desperate home underdog looking to turn a corner with Mike McDaniel and Jim Harbaugh. The Broncos have struggled to run the football, which means Bo Nix will have to make enough plays on the road. Los Angeles has been called for 20 penalties on the offensive line this season – most in the NFL – and faces a daunting task against the Broncos’ defensive front. The Chargers also are 0-4 ATS. We can’t quite pull the upset here.
Pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
- Detroit Lions (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Lions’ defense is struggling. Detroit is allowed a league-worst 304 passing yards per game, and a high-volume passer like Jacoby Brissett can have success against that coverage. The Cardinals, however, have given up 30 or more points in three of four games. Detroit can engage in a wild shootout – especially if Jared Goff, who averages 369 passing yards in two road starts, can stay in command.
Pick: Lions 31, Cardinals 24
MORE: Best trade fits for Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
NFC West rivals meet and the 49ers have a chance to take a two-game lead in the best division in the NFC. Seattle is 10-1 S/U as a home favorite since last season, but they will need to find ways to rattle Brock Purdy, who hasn’t taken a sack this season. It’s a chance for the 49ers to flex, and they have won four of the last five matchups in Seattle.
Pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 23
- Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Lamar Jackson (ankle) is day to day, meaning the Ravens would have to turn to Tyler Huntley on the road if Jackson is held out. The Falcons are coming off a short week, but Michael Penix Jr. will be making his first home start. It’s a showcase game for running backs Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson. Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski had a 4-8 record against the Ravens during his time with Cleveland.
Pick: Ravens 24, Falcons 17
- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Is this a Super Bowl preview? The Rams are back on track after a slow start – and Matthew Stafford should have success against a Buffalo defense that allows 26.8 points per game. Josh Allen will make plays two, but the Bills have committed seven turnovers in the last two weeks. One turnover could be the difference in a back-and-forth Monday Night Football classic.
Pick: Rams 33, Bills 26
