Every team strives for perfection, but few achieve it. In the regular season, at least, Miami (Ohio) has achieved it.

The RedHawks finished off an undefeated regular season on Friday night, defeating Ohio 110-108 in an overtime thriller. After holding a small lead for much of the second half, Miami trailed with less than 15 seconds remaining in overtime, only to take the lead on free throws and get two massive defensive stops to silence the crowd.

While many believe Miami’s place in the NCAA Tournament should have been secure before Friday’s game, the RedHawks can certainly breathe a little easier on that front as they await MAC Tournament play.

Here’s what you need to know about Miami (Ohio)’s seed projection ahead of Selection Sunday.

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Miami (Ohio) seed projection

Miami is a projected 11-seed according to the Bracket Matrix, which takes more than 100 projections into account. Of those projections, which all predated Friday’s game, dozens have the RedHawks as a 10-seed. 

SN’s Bill Bender projects the RedHawks as a No. 10 seed in his latest forecast.

If Miami wins the MAC Tournament, which could include a neutral-site win over Akron, it’s possible a 10-seed is the RedHawks’ floor. If Miami enters the NCAA Tournament off a loss in the MAC Tournament, those projections indicate they still could be one of the last four teams in the field and have to play a First Four game.

Could Miami (Ohio) still miss the NCAA Tournament?

The selection committee is made up of humans, not computers. It’s impossible to fully know which direction the committee will go with Miami if it doesn’t win the MAC’s automatic bid. With that being said, it’s hard to imagine the RedHawks not being rewarded for a one-loss season in the event they don’t win the MAC Tournament.

Miami would be guaranteed a bid with a conference tournament title, but that is far from guaranteed with Akron a powerhouse in the MAC. Because Akron’s metrics are so strong, a loss to the Zips actually would not be too damaging for Miami. If the RedHawks lose to a team other than Akron, it would be a bit tougher of a pill to swallow.

In any case, it would be unprecedented for the committee to leave out a one-loss team. By doing so, the committee would be relying on metrics and nothing else, which isn’t something to expect even for all of the faults in the selection process.

MORE: How good is Miami (Ohio)?

Miami (Ohio) NCAA Tournament metrics

• KenPom: 90th
• NET: 53rd
• WAB: 30th

Miami (Ohio) won’t receive a high seed because of its underwhelming metrics, which are the result of a weak non-conference schedule and numerous close wins. The RedHawks’ non-conference schedule ranked 361st out of 365 teams, according to KenPom, though recent revelations confirmed Miami tried and failed to convince many power conference teams to schedule a matchup this season.

The MAC actually isn’t considered one of the worst mid-major conferences, as its average NET ranking is 12th out of 26 conferences outside of the Power Five, but a significant number of close wins have kept Miami’s metrics from improving much.

Miami does rank 30th in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a newer metric now considered by the committee. If the committee relies partly on WAB again in 2026, the RedHawks should feel comfortable about their place in the tournament.

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Who is Miami (Ohio)’s coach?

The RedHawks are coached by 44-year-old Travis Steele, who is in his fourth season on the job.

Steele isn’t necessarily an up-and-coming coach just breaking onto the scene. While his stock is certainly on the rise, he actually spent four seasons as the head coach at Xavier before his time in Oxford.

Steele, a longtime Xavier assistant before getting the top job, didn’t find much success with the Musketeers after replacing Chris Mack, missing the NCAA Tournament each season (Xavier was considered a bubble team before the 2020 tournament was cancelled). He was fired after the 2021-22 season and found work in the MAC, where he has been at the helm of Miami (Ohio) ever since. 

Whether this year or some time in the future, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Steele back on a power-conference sideline.