The Big 12 spotlight burns bright this Wednesday night as the #4 Arizona Wildcats look to snap an uncharacteristic two-game losing streak when they host the #23 BYU Cougars. Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET from the McKale Center in Tucson, with national coverage on ESPN.

Arizona (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) enters this contest as a heavy home favorite, but the vibe in the desert is tense. The Wildcats have dropped back-to-back games—including a tough loss to Texas Tech—and are now clinging to second place in the conference standings, trailing Houston by a half-game. On the flip side, BYU (19-6, 7-5 Big 12) rolls into town with the momentum of a two-game winning streak. Despite significant injury news on both sides, this matchup presents a massive opportunity for the Cougars to secure a signature road victory and bolster their March resume. We’re diving deep into the psychology, momentum, and numbers to find the best betting value.

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BYU vs. Arizona Odds

Here are the current lines for Wednesday’s showdown at the McKale Center.

• Moneyline: BYU +625 | Arizona -952
• Spread: BYU +12.5 (-105) | Arizona -12.5 (-115)
• Total: Over/Under 164.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 18, 2026, at 2:47 PM ET from DraftKings.

The market clearly expects an Arizona victory, with the moneyline priced at -952. The spread has tightened slightly from an opener of -13.5, showing some respect for BYU’s recent wins and Arizona’s recent struggles.

Fearless Forecast: Best Bets & Predictions

We’ve got a desperate home team against a ranked road dog that can light up the scoreboard. The oddsmakers have installed Arizona as a double-digit favorite, banking on a “bounce-back” performance. However, digging into the situational trends and roster availability, we’re seeing a different story unfold.

Spread Pick: BYU +12.5 (-105)

We are grabbing the points with the Cougars here. Laying 12.5 points with an Arizona squad that is currently 0-2 ATS in their last two games feels like a trap, especially considering the roster shake-up. The Wildcats will be without key contributor Koa Peat (lower leg), removing 15.1 points per game from their rotation. While Arizona historically dominates at home, this line is simply too inflated for a conference clash against a top-25 offense.

The engine for our pick is AJ Dybantsa. The BYU forward leads the league in scoring, pouring in 24.4 points per game on 53.6% shooting. When you back an underdog, you want the best offensive player on the floor, and Dybantsa fits that bill. Furthermore, the recent play of Robert Wright III cannot be ignored. With Richie Saunders out for the season (ACL), Wright III has stepped up massively, fresh off a career-high 39-point explosion. His ability to create shots suggests BYU can trade buckets enough to stay within this number.

Arizona has a clear size advantage with Tobe Awaka (9.7 rebounds/game) and Motiejus Krivas, but BYU’s perimeter spacing—anchored by Wright III’s blistering 46.1% from deep—is the great equalizer. We expect the Cougars to hang around and potentially threaten a backdoor cover even if Arizona pulls away late.

Total Prediction: Over 164.5 (-110)

The total is sitting at a lofty 164.5, but we’re looking to smash the Over. Both squads play at a frantic pace and rank among the nation’s elite in offensive efficiency. Even with injuries to Peat and Saunders, the “next man up” mentality has led to high-volume shooting for both sides.

Arizona is averaging 88.2 points per game, and despite Peat’s absence, they still have Brayden Burries (15.7 PPG) and a frontcourt that generates endless second-chance points. Awaka averages nearly four offensive boards per game, which translates to quick, high-percentage putbacks that keep the clock moving and the score rising.

Conversely, BYU isn’t looking to grind this out. Dybantsa and Wright III are combining for massive production, and the Cougars’ defense (allowing 74.5 PPG) has shown leaks that Arizona will exploit. In a game where the Wildcats feel pressure to score early to engage the home crowd, we see this turning into a track meet that eclipses the 165-point mark.

Best Value Bet: BYU Team Total Over 75.5 (-120)

Rather than sweating a potential Arizona blowout, the smartest angle is isolating the BYU offense. The Cougars are averaging 86.5 points per game—well clear of this total.

Arizona’s defense has been suspect during their losing streak, surrendering ground on the perimeter. While the loss of Saunders hurts BYU’s depth, it has consolidated volume into the hands of their most efficient scorers. With Dybantsa consistently dropping 20+ and Wright III proving he can take over a game, BYU has too much firepower to be held under 76. Expect them to keep firing from deep to chase the Wildcats, pushing this team total over the number.

Same Game Parlay (+265)

Let’s rev up the bankroll with a correlated parlay that aligns with our game script of a high-scoring shootout where the underdog keeps pace.

• Spread: BYU +12.5
• Total: Over 164.5 Points
• Team Total: BYU Over 75.5 Points

The Rationale: If BYU covers +12.5, it’s not going to be because they won a defensive struggle 60-55. It will be because their offense clicked. By linking the spread cover with the Over and the BYU Team Total, we are essentially betting on one outcome: Dybantsa and Wright III having a good shooting night. If that happens, all three legs should cash comfortably.

Public Betting Analysis

The ticket counters are telling a fascinating story of “Sharps vs. Squares” for this matchup. Understanding the flow of money versus the flow of tickets gives us a peek behind the curtain.

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Sharp vs. Public: The Moneyline Discrepancy

We have a classic sharp signal flashing on the moneyline. The general public is heavily backing the home favorite, with 94.9% of total bets on Arizona to win outright. This is expected given Arizona’s home reputation.

However, the money tells a different tale. Despite receiving less than 6% of the tickets, BYU has attracted 60.02% of the handle. When you see 60% of the money on a team receiving only 5% of the bets, it means the large, sophisticated wagers (sharps) are sniffing an upset—or at least see massive value in the +625 price. This aligns perfectly with our read to back the Cougars.

Spread Trends

The narrative flips on the spread. The public loves the underdog here:

• BYU (+12.5): 74.06% of Bets | 45.02% of Money
• Arizona (-12.5): 25.94% of Bets | 54.98% of Money

While the public is siding with us on the points, the money is slightly favoring Arizona to cover. This indicates that while the average bettor thinks 12.5 is too many points, some whales are respecting Arizona’s ability to blow teams out at the McKale Center.

Total Trends

The market is split on the total, though it leans slightly against us.

• Over: 46.13% of Bets | 48.85% of Money
• Under: 53.87% of Bets | 51.15% of Money

With the majority of bets and money slightly favoring the Under, our Over 164.5 pick is a contrarian play. We’re betting that the offensive talent on the floor outweighs the “defensive intensity” narrative often associated with conference rematches.

Tale of the Tape: Statistical Breakdown

Let’s strip away the hype and look at the cold, hard numbers. This table highlights why we believe BYU can hang within the number.

Mismatch Analysis

Offense vs. Offense
These are two Ferraris on a race track. Arizona averages 88.2 PPG while BYU is right behind at 86.5 PPG. Notably, BYU holds the edge in Strength of Schedule, meaning their offensive production has been battle-tested against tougher defenses on average.

Star Power vs. Depth
Arizona usually wins on depth, but injuries have leveled the playing field. With Koa Peat out, Arizona loses a key scoring pillar. Meanwhile, BYU boasts the best player on the court in AJ Dybantsa (24.4 PPG). In betting, having the “alpha” scorer is critical for stopping opponent runs. Dybantsa’s high usage rate ensures BYU can manufacture points when the offense breaks down.

The Glass vs. The Arc
The biggest mismatch favors Arizona on the boards. Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas give the Wildcats a massive size advantage. However, this feeds our Over prediction. Arizona will get second-chance points, but BYU will counter with 3-point volume. If Wright III and Dybantsa are hitting from deep, 3 points > 2 points helps the underdog stay close.