The Senior Bowl is an important step in the pre-draft process. One of the few games to shine a light on under-the-radar players, but has also revealed concerns with certain prospects over the years. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia might’ve put himself in that second group.
Heading into this phase, Pavia already had concerns, if not red flags. The Heisman photo created real size concerns. The negative reaction to not winning the Heisman was an even more concerning development. Then there’s the skill set.
There are multiple ways to win in college football. The issue is the NFL is not looking for all of them. Pavia could be the anti-Tim Tebow. Has the moxie, fire and determination to win but without the size, elite college football resume or the wholesome good guy persona of a Tim Tebow.
Tim Tebow, Robert Griffin III, Vince Young, Johnny Manziel, Pat White all had incredible college football careers, all played with moxie and determination and none of them went on to have great NFL careers.
Pavia’s Senior Bowl performance
Coming into the Senior Bowl game, Pavia was receiving some positive press. He was one of the standouts in practice as voted on by coaches and players. He was described as having a great week of practice. Then the game happened.
The long and short of it is Pavia’s performance should serve as confirmation of concerns coming into the pre-draft process. His size is a real concern, confirmed by his official measurements. His ball placement is a concern. Rushing to the wrong decision is a concern. Pavia’s pocket depth is a concern.
In order, his first six drop backs included a 10-yard pass on an 18 yard drop back, a muffed QB/RB handoff exchange, tangled feet with the right guard resulting in a sack, a quick screen for an eight yard gain, another deep rollout with deep pocket depth for a six yard gain and he attempted to climb the pocket into a defender he did not see.
Working through his plays the next group is not much better. Two passes in succession that were first reads for short gains. Then another sack he likely didn’t see coming. In another play, Pavia gets flushed out of the pocket, could’ve ran for the first down, but threw it late and low to his check down.
Another play a few downs later, he scrambles when his lineman had the rusher blocked and shouldn’t have resulted in a bad pass that would have converted the first down. A few plays later, Pavia executes a very awkward play action fake to a running back. The pass was late, but the back was able to salvage the first down conversion.
Even in a play made for a Pavia highlight, he scrambles to run for a positive gain and gets sandwiched by two defenders almost immediately. Further suggesting his size is a problem.
What does this mean for Pavia’s Draft stock
Despite narratives and opinions, Pavia possessing great or elite draft stock was always going to be a tough sell. While he may believe he is the best player in the draft, there is almost no evidence to suggest that is remotely true.
As is often the case especially for quarterbacks, Pavia needed to show NFL teams more of him executing what they would want to see and leaning less into what he’s been at the college level. Pavia needed to look more like a Drew Brees and less like a Tim Tebow. Something he failed to do in Mobile, Alabama.
Pavia will need to prove throughout the remainder of the pre-draft process that he can be what NFL teams are looking for. Can he operate as well under center as he does rolling out? Can he operate within the framework of the offense or is he just an off-platform darling?
If he’s just dynamic when plays fall apart and can’t make the easy stuff look easy, NFL teams are going to have a hard time warming up to his style of play. He is also going to need to reign in on the off the field brashness that seems to be part of his personality.
A recent cautionary tale Pavia should consider
The cautionary tale is not Tim Tebow and it’s not Johnny Manziel. The eventuality Pavia needs to work to avoid is Shedeur Sanders. Granted, a fair amount of the Sanders draft fallout falls on Deion Sanders, there were plenty of concerns with the younger and draft eligible Sanders.
Whether it was the “Legendary” comments, the necklace that shimmered from thousands of feet away at the combine while he did not participate, or an overall temperament that suggested he believed he was a top 5 pick, plenty of what Shedeur did or said was not received well.
Despite how many prospects operate, they rarely ever speak themselves into the draft position they want. The NFL is not the WWE. For Pavia to become a legitimate option for NFL teams the first thing he has to prove is that his size won’t be a concern. Which would be a tall enough task on its own.
The second thing he’ll need to show is that he is as ‘scheme agnostic’ as possible and is capable of running NFL offenses. Even if that offensive structure doesn’t exactly fit what he did at Vanderbilt.
