Eight teams enter Week 10 of the NFL season with league-best two losses – an indicator that the race to the top of the AFC and NFC standings remains wide open.
New England (7-2) and Tampa Bay (6-2) meet in one of two matchups between two-loss teams. Can we call this the “Tom Brady Bowl?” The Pats have been a surprise team under first-year coach Mike Vrabel, and Drake Maye ranks second in the NFL with a 116.9 passer rating. The only quarterback with a higher rating is Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, and he’s missed four games. Baker Mayfield has the Bucs on pace for a sixth straight playoff appearance – a run that started when Brady arrived in 2020.
Philadelphia (6-2) and Green Bay (5-2-1) face off on Monday Night Football in the other matchup. The Packers are 2-0-1 in prime-time games this season but are coming off a stunning 16-13 loss to Carolina. The Eagles had a bye week and are 2-1 on the road this season. Plus, we get Saquon Barkley and Micah Parsons on the same field.
Those are the highlights of the Week 10 schedule. Here is a look at our track record on picks heading into the second half of the season:
Straight up: 87-47-1 (9-5 in Week 9)
Against the spread: 69-64-2 (7-7 in Week 9)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 10. Odds according to Caesars.
POWER RANKINGS: Bills, Rams back near top; Packers, Chiefs slide into Week 10
NFL picks, predictions for Week 10
- Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-9.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
It’s a high spread for a division game – but the Broncos‘ pass rush will force a few turnovers from Geno Smith. The Raiders have been outscored 112-30 in their last three road losses. Tight end Brock Bowers – who had 127 yards and three TDs last week – didn’t play in two of those losses. It still feels like the Broncos have control at home – even if they are 1-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points this season.
Pick: Broncos 33, Raiders 18
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- Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
The trip to Berlin takes the true home-field advantage out for the Colts. Michael Penix threw three TDs in Atlanta’s heartbreaking 24-23 loss to the Patriots. The running back matchup between Jonathan Taylor (895 yards, 12 TDs) and Bijan Robinson (595 yards, 3 TDs) is fun too. The Falcons are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
Pick: Colts 28, Falcons 26
MORE: Parker Romo’s missed extra point ruins Drake London’s big day vs. Patriots
- New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Giants have scored just 16 points per game the last two weeks, and the Bears average 27 points per game at home. Will New York’s pass rush be able to land against Caleb Williams, who has taken just four sacks in the last three games?
Pick: Bears 27, Giants 21
- Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills won the first meeting 31-21 in Week 3, and the key for the Dolphins to keep this close will be forcing turnovers. Buffalo has a plus-four turnover margin in two games since their bye week with Josh Allen at the controls. Miami has three or more turnovers in three of its last four games. That’s not a winning formula.
Pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 17
MORE: Why Dolphins won’t move on from Mike McDaniel in middle of season
- Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Baltimore is looking to get back in the AFC North race. Lamar Jackson’s return added to the running game, but the defense has allowed just 11 points per game since the bye week. JJ McCarthy looked good in his return, too, and Minnesota will be a tough out at home. This should be the best game of the early slate.
Pick: Ravens 26, Vikings 24
- Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Jets have allowed 31 sacks this season – the fourth most in the NFL. That is a frightening trend facing Cleveland edge rusher Myles Garrett – who has 10 sacks this season. Aaron Glenn did not announce a starting QB on Monday. The Browns average 12.5 points on the road. Dillon Gabriel has avoided sacks, but can he avoid turnovers on the road in a defensive struggle?
Pick: Browns 19, Jets 16
- New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots are on a six-game winning streak, and the defense has allowed 23 points or less in those victories. Will New England slow down Baker Mayfield – who has a 103.4 passer rating at home this season? Look for the Buccaneers to pull out another close victory in the “Tom Brady Bowl.”
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Patriots 21
- New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers proved against the Packers that they can be a playoff team – and Rico Dowdle has three games with 100 or more rushing yards in the last five weeks. The Saints allow 129.4 rushing yards per game, too. Carolina is 3-1 S/U at home this season.
Pick: Panthers 24, Saints 15
MORE: How Tyler Shough earned starting role over Spencer Rattler
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Will C.J. Stroud (concussion) play? That would alter the line if Davis Mills is the starter for the Texans. Jacksonville won the first meeting 17-10 in Week 3 – and another defensive struggle seems inevitable between these AFC South rivals, whether Stroud plays or not.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 18
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Seattle has the look of a Super Bowl contender with the combination of Sam Howell and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL with 948 receiving yards. Arizona is coming off a short week and has seven games that have been decided by one score.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 24
MORE: Sam Darnold enjoys monster day in dominant win over Commanders
- Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The 49ers beat the Rams 26-23 on Oct. 2, and it’s a chance for Los Angeles to issue payback in the always-close NFC West rivalry. The Rams have won the last two road meetings, and the last three meetings have been decided by six points or less. This time, Matthew Stafford leads the go-ahead drive late.
Pick: Rams 28, 49ers 23
- Detroit Lions (-8.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Commanders’ season took a nose-dive with the loss of Jayden Daniels (elbow). The Lions are coming off a loss, too. It’s a bad recipe for Washington, which ranks 29th against the pass this season. That could mean a huge game for Jared Goff, who averages 222 passing yards with seven TDs and one interception in four road games this season.
Pick: Lions 31, Commanders 17
MORE: Ranking best options for Commanders to replace Jayden Daniels
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Chargers averaged 119 rushing yards and allowed 61 rushing yards in their last two victories. Pittsburgh is 2-1 S/U on the road this season, but they’ve allowed 30-plus points to the Jets and Bengals. This could turn into a shootout between Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers, especially in the second half. Los Angeles is 3-0 S/U in prime-time games this season.
Pick: Chargers 29, Steelers 22
- Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN
How will Green Bay respond to the dud against Carolina? The Packers have not lost consecutive home games since 2018 – the year before Matt LaFleur arrived as head coach. Philadelphia is coming off a bye week, too. The Eagles are 5-0 S/U after a bye under Nick Sirianni, and Saquon Barkley averaged 114 rushing yards with three total TDs in two games against the Packers last season.
Pick: Eagles 21, Packers 17
MORE: How Packers’ loss to Panthers shakes up NFC North standings
