Ohio State was given a 94.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff this season, which is the second-highest mark in the country, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. So who has a better chance than the defending championship, top-ranked Buckeyes?
That would be their Big Ten foes Indiana, which has a 96.4 percent chance of qualifying for the 12-team CFP field.
Much of that is based on the remaining schedule for both OSU and IU, but there is no doubt the Buckeyes and Hoosiers have put themselves in an excellent spot heading into November. Third on the list is Texas A&M. The last remaining unbeaten in the SEC has a 93.2 percent chance of making their first College Football Playoff, according to Connelly.
As Curt Cignetti and Hoosiers approach the final month of the season, a return run to the College Football Playoff seems more likely as the season drags on.
Indiana and Ohio State will likely face each other in December’s Big Ten title game. However, win or lose, it appears both teams will be included in this year’s Playoff.
“The three remaining unbeaten SEC/Big Ten teams have average odds of making the CFP well over 90%, then a second tier of six teams is between 54% and 71%, a third tier of four teams is between 36% and 50%, a giant fourth tier of hopefuls is between 5% and 25%, and, of course, a fifth tier of Group of 5 teams is primarily fighting over a single bid,” Connelly wrote.
Both Indiana and Ohio State should handle their respective opponents this week.
“Any of these teams might have to lose three times to fall out of CFP contention,” Connelly added. “Texas A&M still has to travel to Missouri and Texas and host an athletic South Carolina squad, but it’s safe to say these teams are in great shape. The Aggies are off this week, and the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are favored by 20-plus points.”
Tier 2 includes teams 4-9 in the AP Top 25 poll: Alabama (71.2% chance to make CFP), Ole Miss (70.6%), Oregon (67.9%), Georgia (61.4%), Georgia Tech (60.0%) and BYU (54.0%).
For Tier 3, you’re looking at teams 10-13 on Connelly’s list and I was surprised to see Notre Dame so low: Texas Tech (50.4% chance to make CFP), Miami (45.8%), Vanderbilt (42.2%) and the Fighting Irish (36.6%).
Top-ranked Ohio State welcomes Penn State into Columbus on Saturday (Noon ET, FOX)
