Week 3 in the NFL saw some desperate teams pull out desperate measures, in some cases working out in their winning favor. Now that most teams have gotten off the mat for the season or come back down to earth a little early, the true identities for 2025 are being revealed.
The league seems more unpredictable than ever, but data will soon be a real friend. Hang in there and don’t assume anything in any matchup. Here’s Sporting News’ latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
POWER RANKINGS: 49ers, Chargers, Colts up; Packers, Broncos slide for Week 4
NFL picks against the spread for Week 4
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Cardinals’ offense has gone cold around Kyler Murray with Marvin Harrison Jr. continuing to slump as a sophmore and now turning to Trey Benson in the backfield. The Seahawks have been solid vs. the run early and been getting a good mix of balance and explosiveness in their Sam Darnold-led offense.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-20.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens will come into Arrowhead on a short week and have shown their share of defensive holes. The Chiefs will try to take advantage of that with an aggressive passing game early to get the Ravens out of their run-heavy element. Patrick Mahomes needs another big moment vs. Lamar Jackson late and gets it.
Pick: Chiefs win 23-20.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers have unleashed rookie running back Omarion Hamption and will pound him as the new clear workhorse on a weak Giants’ run defense. Then they will swarm Russell Wilson with pass rush and coverage after stopping the run, trying to hasten the true beginning of the Jaxson Dart era. Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh win another big road game together.
Pick: Chargers win 30-10 and cover the spread.
Monday 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Jets are playing hard and with some energy for defensive-minded rookie coach Aaron Glenn. They have shown a lot of life in two of three games and are better prepared to rebound from 0-3 than the Dolphins are. Glenn gets his first win in prime time while the Dolphins get closer to the end of the Mike McDaniel era.
Pick: Jets win 24-20.
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
The Vikings loved what Carson Wentz did in leading the offense but it was big plays on defense and a dominant running game that destroyed the Bengals. This AFC North foe is a little tougher, far on the road in Dublin, Ireland. The Steelers will be jacked to make sure they win this one for the Rooney family with Aaron Rodgers ready to protect the ball and make some needed small and big plays.
Pick: Steelers win 20-17.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Marcus Mariota, if he starts again for Jayden Daniels, would have another chance at big revenge victory against another former team. Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr.’s struggles won’t end vs. a rising Dan Quinn defense.
Pick: Commanders win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Saints don’t have much of a run defense or downfield passing game. That plays right into the hands of Josh Allen and James Cook as Buffalo rolls a non-conference foe at home.
Pick: Bills win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions play their best offense at home. The Browns play their best defense at home. Nothing needs to give here with Detroit rocking Cleveland with explosive pass plays and stopping the run.
Pick: Lions win 27-14 and cover the spread.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Bryce Young, the current QB in Charlotte, will engage in a fun duel with Charlotte native Drake Maye with two inconsistent young defenses on the field. They have much better offensive support and it shows this season.
Pick: Patriots win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Philadelphia got its offense revved up at the usual explosive level when Jalen Hurts passing, prompted by the running game being slowed and defense giving it up to a tougher overall team, the Rams. That’s good timing for this latest battled of undefeated teams, because the Buccaneers’ defense hasn’t looked sharp for early going, putting the team in some tough game holes. The Eagles can do more of what they want to do running and passing than the Bucs.
Pick: Eagles win 27-24 and cover the spread.
MORE NFL PICKS: Packers crush Cowboys, Eagles beat Bucs in Week 4
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans are trying to hang tough defensively and are struggling with teams that are balanced, who can run as well as they can pass. Houston isn’t one of those teams with dysfunction up front for C.J. Stroud and running game. That will keep Cam Ward, Tony Pollard and the Titans lingering, until they fall short late on a Ka’imi Fairbairn field goal.
Pick: Texans win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Colts have been the best positive story at 3-0 with their female braintrust schooling the league to honor the late Jim Irsay. Jonathan Taylor is running with elite talent and conviction again and Daniel Jones feels at home with the flow of Shane Steichen’s offense. The Rams have a little more juice in the passing game with Matthew Stafford and his veteran receivers to think this will a successful fourth-quarter comeback.
Pick: Rams win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Mac Jones has been balling in the clutch as the 49ers’ backup QB, a role he held with the Jaguars last season. But he is bound to miss his revenge start with Brock Purdy on the brink of returning. The 49ers aren’t lighting it up, but they’re getting what needs to be done offensively to complement a defense back on track in Robert Saleh’s scheming. The Jaguars haven’t tapped into all their offensive potential yet so Christian McCaffrey and the rest of the 49ers’ skill support gets a break to outscore them.
Pick: 49ers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Beans have seen the real Caleb Williams in Ben Johnson’s explosive and diverse offense when he can be let loose against a bad defense. The Raiders will oblige to keep the second-year QB hot with a variety of weapon with big-play potential. Geno Smith will get a little more needed help from rookie Ashton Jeanty and the running game, but it won’t be enough firepower
Pick: Bears win 27-20.
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock
The Packers get a sweet Micah Parsons revenge game at the right time after their first stunning loss of the season at Cleveland. The defense will stay sharp with Parsons going after his former team but this is a classic get-well game for the offense as Jordan Love operates against the Parsons-less Cowboys in prime time.
Pick: Packers win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC
Between Jake Browning and Bo Nix, this can be a sloppy turnover fest. But the Broncos field the better overall defense and Browning is making bigger mistakes than Nix. Denver can win on the ground to take pressure off Nix, while Browning can be swarmed again by a tough pass defense.
Pick: Broncos win 23-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 3 record straight up: 11-4
- Week 3 record against the spread: 7-8
- 2025 season record straight up: 35-12
- 2025 season record against the spread: 22-24
